Agent-based modelling in economics – from toy model to verified tool of analysis
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A platform for discussion + tutorial on the validation and verification of ABM
May 19th-20th 2017 at ESCP Europe Business School Berlin
The best model of a cat is a cat, preferably the same cat (1). Science needs models to study phenomena which can´t be tested in reality. A 1:1 model would be as complex as the real world and take as long to run. Models thus have to be abstract simplifications. Standard economic mathematical models are high abstractions based on unrealistic behavioral assumptions.
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Agent-based models (ABM) have been established as an alternative, offering the potential to integrate empirically observed facts, but economic ABM are still often toy models. They may be helpful to illustrate interrelations or dynamics, but the relevance of their analysis is hard to prove.
The workshop wants to discuss how economic ABM can become more credible by designing them following standard principles of validation and verification.
We would like to exchange ideas about methods discussed in literature, such as sensitivity analyses, guidelines for rigor (2), or the “systematic design of experiments” (DOE)(3).
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CALL & SUBMISSION
We encourage all scientists working with ABM in economics and basic experience with model validation to send an abstract of 300-500 words by March 26th 2017 via email to sustbusy@escpeurope.eu, together with the application form available here.
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Scientists without a paper may apply explaining their motivation. Active participation is required by agreeing to serve as discussant for a paper. Notification of acceptance will be given after a review process by March 31, full papers are due by May 5th 2017.
The workshop is free of charge.
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Important Dates:
March 26th 2017 Deadline for submission of abstracts and application forms
March 31st 2017 Notification of acceptance
May 5th 2017 Full paper due
May 19-20 2017 2nd ABM Workshop (approx. 9.30 am – 6.30 pm each day)
Please feel free to spread the Call for Papers within your network!
KEYNOTE SPEAKERS
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We are happy to welcome two keynotes to the workshop with the following topics confirmed:
Dr. Claudius Gräbner (Johannes Kepler University Linz)
Keynote: "Agent-based models verification and validation - Epistemological importance and theoretical challenges"
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Dr. Claudius Gräbner is currently a research associate at the Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy (ICAE) at the Johannes Kepler University Linz (Austria). His research is concerned with the effects of globalization and the determinants for international competitiveness of countries, as well as economic complexity, institutions and development.
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Dr. Iris Lorscheid (TU Hamburg Harburg)
Tutorial: "Verification and validation of ABM in practice - step by step through the systematic `design of experiments´ (DOE)"
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Dr. Iris Lorscheid currently works as senior researcher and lecturer at the Institute of Management Accounting and Simulation (MACCS), Hamburg University of Technology. Her research is focused on simulation and modeling, such as design of simulation experiments, simulation data analysis, as well as validation of agent architectures. She has extensive experience as a simulation modeler from different positions and projects at the Hamburg University of Technology, the University of Koblenz, and Otto Beisheim School of Management (WHU), and also teaches simulation methods and good scientific practice.
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PROGRAMME
(A preliminary workshop schedule will be announced shortly)
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Venue:
The workshop will take place at ESCP Europe Business School conveniently located in Berlin-Charlottenburg/City West. Public transportation is provided via frequent S-Bahn (Station Westend) and Bus connections (Station Schlosspark-Klinik).
Berlin is a city with a strong cosmopolitan and international character, due to a population of approx. 3.5 Mio. which originates from over 180 countries. It fascinates by the remains of an eventful and moving history, which is visible all around the city. Dense urbanity and a wide variety of recreational activities can be found side by side in Berlin.
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Berlin is easy accessible from all over Europe via all kinds of transport. Find your connection via www.bahn.de, www.blablacar.de or www.busliniensuche.de. We encourage travelling to the workshop by train or bus. If you need to fly, the city has two airports nearby.
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CONTACT
For any assistance or help regarding the workshop participation do not hesitate to contact our Coordination office via email to sustbusy@escpeurope.eu.
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1) Quote adapted from: Rosenblueth A. and Wiener N. (1945) The Role of Models in Science. Philos Sci. 12:316–321 2
2) Rand W. and Rust R. (2011) Agent-Based Modeling in Marketing: Guidelines for Rigor. Intern J of Res in Marketing. 28:181-193 3
3) Lorscheid I., Heine BO. And Meyer M. (2012) Opening the `black box´of simulations: increased transparency and effective communication through the systematic design of experiments. Comput Math Oran Theory. 18:22-62
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